A Powerful Test for the Maximum Treatment Effect in Thorough QT/QTc Studies

Parallel-group thorough QT/QTc studies focus on the change of QT/QTc values at several time-matched points from a pretreatment day (baseline) to a posttreatment day for different groups of treatment. The International Council for Harmonisation E14 stresses that QTc prolongation beyond a threshold represents high cardiac risk and calls for a test on the largest time-matched treatment effect (QTc prolongation). QT/QTc analysis usually assumes a jointly multivariate normal (MVN) distribution of pretreatment and posttreatment QT/QTc values, with a blocked compound symmetry covariance matrix. Existing methods use an analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) model including day-averaged baseline as a covariate to deal with the MVN model. However, the ANCOVA model tends to underestimate the variation of the estimator for treatment effects, resulting in the inflation of empirical type I error rate when testing whether the largest QTc prolongation is beyond a threshold. In this article, we propose two new methods to estimate the time-matched treatment effects under the MVN model, including maximum likelihood estimation and ordinary-least-square-based two-stage estimation. These two methods take advantage of the covariance structure and are asymptotically efficient. Based on these estimators, powerful tests for QT/QTc prolongation are constructed. Simulation shows that the proposed estimators have smaller mean square error, and the tests can control the type I error rate with high power. The proposed methods are applied on testing the carryover effect of diltiazem to inhibit dofetilide in a randomized phase 1 trial.